US mid-term election round up

With less than a week to go until the mid-term elections in the States, we thought we’d cast a quick eye over the Senatorial races.

Kos published the latest polling on some of the key Senatorial races earlier today. They seem to confirm that, although the House seems in their grasp (barring John Kerry saying anything else between now and polling day), the Senate is still a tough prospect.

The magic number is six net gains for the Democrats to take back the Senate. Polls show the Dems still leading in three of the four Republican seats where they’ve been best placed, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island. The Montana lead has dwindled to a statistical tie.

Pennsylvania (R*) Zogby for Reuters. Santorum (R) 40 (36) Casey (D) 48 (48) – some bounce back for the GOP, but they’re surely too far back on this one.
Ohio (R) Zogby for Reuters. DeWine (R) 42 (41) Brown (D) 49 (41)
Rhode Island (R) Zogby for Reuters. Chafee (R) 39 (41) Whitehouse (D) 53 (45)
Montana (R) Zogby for Reuters. Burns (R) 46 (42) Tester (D) 47 (46)

In the two races where Democratic Senate seats have been at risk, the danger seems to have abated.

New Jersey (D) Zogby for Reuters. Menendez (D) 49 (46) Kean (R) 37 (35).
Maryland (D) Zogby for Reuters. Cardin (D) 49 (45) Steele (R) 44 (37). This is an open seat and the Republicans are reportly pouring money in. They’ve brought it back, but surely too late.

This leaves three states, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, likely to decide the control of the US Senate. If the Democrats can hold Maryland and New Jersey and take the four key states, then they will have to take two of these states.

Missouri (R) Rasmussen. Talent (R) 47 (48) McCaskill (D) 48 (46). Zogby for Reuters. Talent (R) 43 (43) McCaskill (D) 46 (48). A statistical tie, but both show the Democrat in the lead.
Tennessee (R) Rasmussen. Corker (R) 49 (47) Ford (D) 47 (46) Zogby for Reuters. Corker (R) 53 (40) Ford (D) 43 (40). 
Virginia (R) Zogby for Reuters. Allen (R) 44 (48) Webb (D) 45 (37). Another statistical tie.

Arizona could also be interesting as, although the GOP candidate Jon Kyl has a 6 point lead, the Dems are pumping in money and sending top personnel as early voting patterns show Pederson, the Democrat, leads in absentee ballots cast.

It’s tantalising as, if the poll results were replicated exactly in the election, the Democrats would win. With several of these races too close to call, we’ll just have to wait for the fat lady to sing.

In other election news, Lieberman is still leading as an independent in Connecticut.  Zogby for Reuters. Lieberman (CfL) 49 (53) Lamont (D) 37 (33) Schlesinger (R) 8 (4) . It’s pretty unlikely that Lamont can claw it back at this stage as Lieberman seems to have a loyal rump of supporters, together with a big chunk of the Republican vote, to give him a majority.

Lamont’s last faint hope is probably in the scandal that’s brewing over huge spending irregularities in Lieberman’s Democratic primary campaign. It seems that the $387,000  in petty cash payments that Lieberman made in the dying days of his failed re-nomination attempts may have been illegal.

Lieberman’s probable re-election, however, will be interesting as his vote could end up deciding who controls the Senate.

In the meantime, for old time’s sake, we thought we’d leave you with Lamont’s latest campaign video.

After Mr Smith Goes to Washington:

*Some of these races are open as the incumbent has stood down. I’m still marking them with the party of the incumbent.