Breaking news: ICM give Tories 10-point lead

News is now coming in on the wires that tomorrow’s ICM-Guardian poll will show the Tories taking a 10-point lead, on 39% to 29% for Labour, with the Lib Dems up to 22%.

No wonder the Guardian decided to hold over the voting intention figures and get a second front page splash from one poll. Polls allow the media to create news if it’s a slow day and this is a great example.

But does it mean anything? Obviously, we have not yet seen the internals. And the polls, after a long period of stability that has made political journalists despair, have suddenly become volatile, making for easy headlines and early drinks for the lazy hacks.

This makes the picture hard to judge and Friday’s YouGov tracker will be keenly anticipated.

For now, all we can say is that the last ICM poll, earlier in October, had the Tories on 38 points so 39 is not a huge shock. The main shift seems to have been Labour losing ground to the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, today’s Communicate poll had the Lib Dems on a shock low of 14 points – surely a blip but a full 8 points off? Mori were showing a surprise Labour lead, though that poll was conducted before coverage of the Tory tax proposals.

We hate to be boring but when the polls contradict each other, it’s best to wait and see. Something tells us, however, that tomorrow’s Guardian headlines will contain no such caveats.   

2 Responses to Breaking news: ICM give Tories 10-point lead

  1. Passing Tory says:

    Its one poll. Interesting, but one poll. Clearly the political world is moving, but I suggest that before you panic (or we rejoice) that the matter is tested in those funny things called elections.

    I think next May, that we will all have a much clearer idea of what the position of all the respective Parties will be.

    However, the Government is in trouble and it will be interesting to see what is done to see if you can regain the initiative.

  2. I broadly agree with that. Both sides are on occasion guilty, as I observe on my occasional visits to ConHome!

    Stuff like today’s headlines is great for the media but not particularly useful in analysing long term trends – or how to change them.

    As for next May – you’ll have low expectations in Scotland and Wales and it’s hard to say whether it’s any indicator of what will happen in the GE but there’s no doubt it will be infinitely more important than any opinion poll.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: