Left lead not enough to avoid run-off in Ecuador

The latest polls are showing left-wing candidate Rafael Correa still leading with around 30 percent support in the Ecuadorian presidential elections.

Correa now has 30 percent against 23 percent for big spending banana magnate Alvaro Noboa. The centre-left hope, Leon Roldos, has now decisively lost his second position with 19 percent.

Rafael Correa

Unless one candidate gets either 50 percent or 40 percent and a 10 point lead over the nearest rival, it goes to a run off. However, with high numbers of undecideds and mandatory voting in Ecuador, the polls could easily get it wrong. Our source in Ecuador (yeah, we really do have one!), tells us that Correa’s soap opera star good looks are playing very well among undecided, apolitical citizens, who legally have to cast their vote.

However, if it does go to a second round, it is far from clear which way the vote would go. Our Ecuadorian source tells us that Roldos, despite also coming from the left, may very well not back Correa, so the left’s fairly strong showing may all amount to nothing if the high-spending Noboa can get backing and throw more funds into the election.

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