Five days away from the presidential elections in Ecuador and the field is still being led by Rafael Correa. The latest poll, carried out by Gallup’s local affiliate Cedatos, finds Correa on 36 percent, down one point but within the margin of error, and his two rivals, the social-democrat Leon Roldos and right-wing populist Alvaro Novoa equal on 20 percent.
Unfortunately only the headline is available and Cedatos are only publishing the detail for subscribers as it’s illegal to publish polls in Ecuador.
Alvaro Novoa seems to be making quite a charge, having been on 13 percent just a couple of weeks ago. If no candidate makes either 50 percent or 40 percent with a 10 percentage point lead over the nearest rival, then it will go to a second round.
The best of all worlds would be a Correa/Roldos run off. It would be the most difficult scenario for Correa, as the centre-left Roldos would probably pick up votes from the centre-left out to the right. However, that scenario would guarantee a President from the left of centre.
Novoa is the easier prospect for Correa, he is very much part of the old political elite that Correa has railed against so successfully, but if Novoa were in the run off, it would keep the right’s electoral chances alive, leaving the possibility that they could win.