New deputy leadership odds

William Hill have just re-opened their online market for betting on the Labour deputy leadership election.

With odds rapidly shifting, the betting market is turning in to more of a rollercoaster ride than the race itself, which suggests that this is one game where an informed punter will know more than the bookies.

The new odds are:

Benn 11/4
Hain 3/1
Johnson 7/2
Cruddas 8/1
Jowell 9/1
Straw 12/1
Harman 14/1
Blears 50/1

There are also various other bizarre names in there, such as Miliband at 10/1, but he’s said he won’t run and we believe him. 

Benn as favourite looks very wrong, and he’s still a 10/1 outsider at Ladbrokes. Cruddas is making steady progress, leapfrogging Harman and Straw. You heard that here first.  

The bookies seem to have swallowed Hain’s spin and he looks over-rated, while Johnson has slipped slightly. For one of only four people who have actually declared an interest, Harman is on pretty long odds and must be worried about a Jowell bid, which could end with neither getting the 44 names. However, it’s probably an unlikely scenario, whatever Will Hill think.

16 Responses to New deputy leadership odds

  1. HenryG says:

    Ladbrokes odds seem on deputy seem to be offline, but the question for Cruddas backers is whether there’s any rival that looks good value? I don’t think Johnson has not had a particularly good few weeks and his refusal to rule himself out of the leadership election could always leave him vulnerable to a Brownite backlash. I think Benn could offer the most credible challenge, but I think Cruddas has a big advantage of already having declared.

    There is a strong mood in the party that Hain and Harman seek the deputy leader post to become deputy PM. For members that already feel neglected, I wonder how much time, energy and fresh thinking Government Ministers can offer the party. Cruddas’ view that it should not have a ministerial post attached is very attractive and has yet to attract similar assurances from other candidates. It could also attract support from those MPs outside of Government office who would have a direct route through to the top of the party. Again Hilary Benn could be forced into the same quandary of choosing between ministerial office or developing the party. For that reason I don’t think he should be backed at all unless he declares with prominent support.

    So should/could Cruddas’ odds shorten further? Personally I’d make him 3/1 as it stands. All noises from the media articles I’ve read so far is that he has a decent strategy that will resonate with many people in the party and affiliates. All rumours suggest he has the support of some very influential trade union leaders.

    If anyone’s not backed Cruddas yet then I’d keep stakes sensible while he’s at 8s unless before Christmas he gets the public backing of a union general secretary, in which case dig in. To get union support so early in this long contest who give huge momentum and open up the potential for them to put their whole machine behind him (loan of cars, secondment of staff, mailshots, endorsements etc.)

    All those sitting on 16/1, 25/1, 33/1, 50/1 (and even bigger!) should be very happy. Definately worth following his campaign closely, in 3 months time the remaining 8/1 could still actually look big.

  2. Nick says:

    Having just come back from Conference, I have to say that I only really met people who were supporting Johnson, Cruddas or Harman. Though the latter may be because Conference attendees are rather more PC than the average party/union member and I only met one person who was backing her for any reason other than gender politics.

    Johnson was picking up most right-wingers’ backing and Cruddas has picked up a lot of support on the centre and soft-left. Straw looks weak and Hain is being squeezed.

    The joker in the pack is Benn – potentially popular among members, but does he have the inclination and parliamentary support? I have to say I doubt it.

    Are there any others? Maybe Blears at 50s. She’s the one that Harman fears. But it’s unlikely she’ll stand – it’d be awkward as Party Chair.

    So all in all I think Cruddas remains a v sound bet; if a Betfair market opens, then it might be worth betting on Harman and looking to lay off when she’s on the ballot.

  3. Thomas says:

    I have to say, although I like the look of Cruddas, 8/1 sounds like bad value – he doesnt have the backing of any unions yet, despite a lot of talk, and how many MPs will he get really? 44 is higher than it sounds. Mind you, Hain’s price is totally crazy…

  4. HenryG says:

    I agree Thomas that it’s time to wait and watch. Bearing in mind that Cruddas will probably the most leftwing candidate (which is quite bizarre bearing in mind he hasn’t rebelled over a much apart from eduction) I’m sure he would pick up the 44 comfortably. Even the Campaign Group which has 24 MPs of which a majority would go to Cruddas.

    Then there’s the Compass Group of MPs which is about 40-50 strong. Cruddas has strong links with Compass, launched a Compass pamphlet at conference and is close to John Trickett, the chair of the parliamentary group. I’m not sure what the situation is with Compass backing candidates in the forthcoming leadership and deputy leadership elections, but as a Compass member I think Cruddas would appeal perfectly to members and MPs belonging to the group.

    Add to that the MPs still heavily involved in trade unionism then I think he’s actually got a better chance of getting on the ballot paper than Hain.

  5. Nick says:

    The magic number 44 is certainly a big question for Cruddas and also some of the other candidates. You can bet that’s why Straw is still “taking soundings” and Harman is nervous about a Jowell/Blears candidacy.

    And it’s a big advantage for Hain that he’s been campaigning for the last year and should have his nominations in the bag. Johnson also should be assured of the necessary support at Westminster.

    That probably explains why they’ve both been amongst the bookies’ favourites for so long, but in the case of Hain I don’t think that what goes down well in Westminster will do it for the wider public.

  6. Andrea says:

    HenryG, do you think there’s a chance that Hain won’t even make the ballot?

  7. HenryG says:

    I think if Hilary Benn and/or Jack Straw stand it would cut right into Hain’s parliamentary support. Cruddas has more clearly defined powerbase so is less vulnerable.

  8. Andrea says:

    Oh, yes, you’re probably right….the race is still to uncertain at the moment because there’re too many potential candidates who can cover the same “territory”

  9. I agree that MPs who are sympathetic to Compass are likely to be sympathetic to Cruddas.

    That said, Hain is also a Compass member and proud of it. The difficulty being that over the last nine years, Hain’s repeatedly shown himself both willing and able to position himself firmly on every conceivable wing of the party during the course of most weeks.

  10. HenryG says:

    Someone summed up at conference that ‘Hain is a political tart’ and I think that is something that’s sticking with him. Do people want a deputy leader who is going to move whichever way the lefty-liberal winds blow, or stick up for the good of the party?

  11. wozza says:

    i do not like hain or blears, neither seems to have anything approaching what humans would call “a soul”.

    Cruddas i like, and his shortening odds are not suprising. Out of all the DL candidates to declare so far he has the largest thread on Labour Home – much of it complimentary – Hains is less agrandising.

    CRuddas has a lot going for him – few enemys (that we know of), strong union ties and close links to blairs inner circle – but with enough of an independent mind to say what isn’t working policy wise and in the “shell” of a party.

    It will be interesting to see who Cruddas’ backers are or, more acutely – who put him upto standing. A move that does seem out of charachter for someone who has kept a low profile in the commons and in the national party.

    One of his downsides is according to theyworkforyou he has not been in many commons debates – so the extent to which he is known even among the PLP may play against him – or it could be one of his strengths (less enemies, familiarity breeding contempt and on).

    W

  12. Nick says:

    I see that as being to his credit – we could do with a few more MPs, especially in safe seats which often have acute social and economic problems, who do that much campaigning and community work in their constituency.

    However, it may not play like that inside the Westminster bubble!

  13. Andrea says:

    yes, he has spoken in few debates, but his voting attendance is pretty high (81%). So it means he was there often and away doing his business

  14. wozza says:

    i had seen that discrepancy – which normally fills me with dread. That sort of low debate attendance/high vote record screams “lobby fodder”……………. and it does seem like that may have been the case – but the guy seems to have a pulse and a soul.

    Beats the alternatives on those two counts, plus opposed tuition fees and has good ideas for the party.

    W

  15. Nick says:

    I think with Cruddas it was more that he spent a lot of time in Dagenham doing community and campaigning work – having worked for an MP I am firmly of the opinion that you can achieve far more there than stuck inside the bubble.

    Because Dagenham is a commute from Westminster, I imagine that he often works in the constituency during the day and comes in for the votes in the evening.

    I think a look through his speaking/voting record probably dispels any notion that he’s simply lobby fodder – he’s just not a serial rebel either.

  16. wozza says:

    While i agree he probbaly has (And from the way he speaks about it) spent a lot of time in his constituency it was a very low level of debate participation – and there have been several issues through parliament one would have thought he would have been there.

    Despite it being a commute – dagenham is a south east constituency,

    But i have also worked in an mp’s office and know the vagueries of what timetables/surgeries/votes/constituency visits throw up.

    I’m not judging his performance solely on that, i have heard him speak often in the past and he has a good grasp of all the issues – it’s purely personal – i just like people with good HOC speaking records. Allows one to trawl through Hansard, but like i say, its one of my foibles.

    W

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