A few polls have now measured the post-conference “bounce” for Labour and individual politicians.
This is a five-day rolling average, taken last Thursday, so does not capture the full effect. The results speak for themselves, with Blair and to lesser extents Reid and Brown getting a boost. It should be noted that the higher ratings for Reid, Johnson, et al is probably due to lower recognition.
Today’s Sunday Mirror ICM poll shows Reid up 8 points as best choice for next Labour leader, but he is still only on 18% while Brown remains stable at 46% – Reid has won over those who already wanted someone other than Brown rather than chipping away at Brown’s support directly.
In a rather strange leadership question, they also ascertain that given the choice of Blair, Brown or Cameron as PM the public splits three ways with 32% each to Blair and Brown and 35% to Cameron. Take from that what you will.
Despite the speech, there remains a strong desire for Blair to go soon, with 42% wanting him to step down now and another 12% before next May, though a Blairite hard core 18% of the public would like him to fight another election.
Headline voting intention figures show a bounce for Labour of 2 points, up to 35%, while the Tories drop a point to 36% and the Lib Dems 2 points to 19%. But the biggest gain was Others – up 3 points to 11%.
This was broadly matched by yesterday’s YouGov Telegraph poll, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1) LAB 36%(+3) LD 16%(-2). The Telegraph also found Cameron suffering from questions on definition and substance.