Post-conference bounce

A few polls have now measured the post-conference “bounce” for Labour and individual politicians.

First up are the latest BrandIndex approval ratings from YouGov pollster Anthony Wells:

graph

This is a five-day rolling average, taken last Thursday, so does not capture the full effect. The results speak for themselves, with Blair and to lesser extents Reid and Brown getting a boost. It should be noted that the higher ratings for Reid, Johnson, et al is probably due to lower recognition.

Today’s Sunday Mirror ICM poll shows Reid up 8 points as best choice for next Labour leader, but he is still only on 18% while Brown remains stable at 46% – Reid has won over those who already wanted someone other than Brown rather than chipping away at Brown’s support directly.

In a rather strange leadership question, they also ascertain that given the choice of Blair, Brown or Cameron as PM the public splits three ways with 32% each to Blair and Brown and 35% to Cameron. Take from that what you will.

Despite the speech, there remains a strong desire for Blair to go soon, with 42% wanting him to step down now and another 12% before next May, though a Blairite hard core 18% of the public would like him to fight another election.

Headline voting intention figures show a bounce for Labour of 2 points, up to 35%, while the Tories drop a point to 36% and the Lib Dems 2 points to 19%. But the biggest gain was Others – up 3 points to 11%.

This was broadly matched by yesterday’s YouGov Telegraph poll, with topline figures of CON 36%(-1)  LAB 36%(+3)  LD 16%(-2). The Telegraph also found Cameron suffering from questions on definition and substance.

Update: The Telegraph have now reported some more findings of their YouGov poll, with the full internals now available here.

4 Responses to Post-conference bounce

  1. Andrea says:

    The “Who do you think should be the next leader of the Labour Party and hence Prime Minister?”has been asked to the whole sample, right?
    If so, it would be interesting to see if Reid’s increase have been among Labour voters or maybe among tory voters

  2. Yes it would – so far Reid has appealed disproportionately to Tory voters, which obviously wouldn’t do him much good in a Labour leadership election. ICM haven’t released the internals yet, but they have done with previous Sunday Mirror polls, so we’ll took a look if and when they do.

  3. Andrea says:

    I suppose he can try to spin that he’s the best one to take on Cameron if he performs well among tory voters

  4. wozza says:

    “so far Reid has appealed disproportionately to Tory voters, which obviously wouldn’t do him much good in a Labour leadership election.”

    heard some disagreement about that, if he starts polling well among Tories some labourists would switch to who looked most likely to win the next election – and if Brown was trailing behind reid……… who’s to say what’d happen.

    Tories probably also like reid because he would lead a more Right WIng administration than Cameron, how taht plays out with the BAckbenchers mood about Tonys authoritarian streak who can tell? (my guess is not well, unless the super enforcer gets the “loyalty” card going)

    42% want him to go now and another 18% within the year…. kind of dispoves the Blairite argumen tthat “the people want him to stay”….. but since when did facts ever entyer a Blairite argument when Der Fuhrer is at stake?

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