In the bookies: deputy leader odds

Our man in the betting shop posted a comment to an earlier piece we wrote on the odds for deputy leader candidates.  We thought it needed wider airing so have decided to post it here.  We would also like to hear from any readers who has placed bets with other firms, please let us know what odds you are getting in the comments.

Henry G writes: 

I think Hills have got a few of these prices (and spelling of names) wrong (particularly the Cruddas price). You can clearly scrub out a few:

David Miliband 11/1 – has wisely refused to stand for either leader or deputy

Jack Straw 16/1 – hardly a breath of fresh air, reasonably respected, but still looks like the Demon Headmaster, even without glasses.

Alan Milburn 20/1 – no base in the party and particularly union movment

Patricia Hewitt 33/1 – are you aving a laff

Beckett – why would she risk her political capital from Foreign Sec for Deputy Leader. Someone who served in the Callaghan Govt is perhaps not the fresh face we need.

Brown 33/1 – hardly

Balls 33/1 – too close to Brown.

Blunkett 33/1 – laughing stock – hardly the man to replace Prescott

Darling 33/1 – see Balls. Next Chancellor.

Clarke 50/1 – the most hated person in the labour party

So we are left with 5:

Blears 50/1 – insanely cheerful, odds about right

Johnson 3/1 – about right, could be a real contender, but could just as easily go for the leadership, not trusted by the big unions because of his support for PR

Hain 2/1 – lost credibility with his natural liberal/left base for not resigning over Iraq. Has flip-flopped over Europe in dramatic fashion. Been a good Northern Ireland Secretary. Could pick up some support, but can’t help coming across as a little vain and smarmy.

Harman 7/1 – people haven’t forgotten where she sent her children to school. Too posh, but has made a good case for a female deputy. Would only be a real contender if Brown publicly backed her, but that’s unlikely.

Cruddas 50/1 – his main advantages are that he’s not associated with past Govt failures, would be seen as fresh, excellent trade union links and would have support for his respected work against the BNP. Since we know we’re in a drawn out leadership (and deputy leadership) campaign, he has 4-6 months to set out his stall and meet a lot of members. I’d put his ‘true’ odds at 6/1 and with some good exposure he could gain real momentum.

I think it’s between Johnson, Hain, Cruddas and Harman and of those Cruddas represents enormous value at 50/1.

11 Responses to In the bookies: deputy leader odds

  1. Nick says:

    But where’s Denis MacShane?😀

  2. Henry G says:

    I guess there weren’t enough zeros on the William Hills keypad.

  3. Definitely think Cruddas is a very good bet at 50/1.

    That said, I don’t Blears at 50/1 is bad compared to Milburn at 20/1 – at least one missing ‘0’ there, I think.

    I think I might see what odds I can get for Denis MacShane. You never know, do you?

  4. Do let us know. We could do with a good laugh to cheer us up this morning after the Swedish election results.

  5. Nick says:

    I can’t actually find anyone other than William Hill who’s taking bets on the deputy leadership, online at least. Anyone found anywhere?

  6. Ian G says:

    Nope. I actually got a friend of mine who gambles a lot to go round the bookies and find out (being tied to my desk and behind a firewall), unfortuntely for him he happened to be in the East End of London…

  7. Cruddas has now moved in to 33/1 at William Hill. I assume you’ll be taking full responsibility for that.

  8. Nick says:

    I got there just as it hit 33/1 – how annoying. I still put twenty quid on though, as even 33/1 is great value, especially when you look at all the other no-hopers who are on the same.

  9. Punter says:

    Hmm, Will Hill seem to have closed the online market on both the leadership and deputy races overnight.

  10. Henry G says:

    Cruddas in to 25/1 on the new William Hill market for Deputy Leader.

  11. James Allen says:

    Cruddas odds: I think Cruddas will probably win the deputy leadership of the labour party race – I tried to put £200 on him to win, and the bookies rang their HQ, gave me 10 to 1, but would only allow me to place £100. Maybe they felt the need to recalculate.

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