The main exit poll has now been published in Sweden and it is bad news. The poll – which has a margin of error of three points – puts the right-wing Alliance two points ahead. So it could be close – in fact the left could really be one point ahead. But really, it also means the right could be five points up. The Alliance are put at 48.6%, with the left bloc on 46.7%.
The breakdowns for those really interested in Swedish politics are: for the Alliance, the Centre Party 8% (up 2), the Christian Democrats 8% (down 1), the Liberals 7% (down 6), and the Moderates 27% (up 12). For the left bloc, the Social Democrats 34% (down 5), the Greens 6% (up 1) and the Left Party 6% (down 3).
If these figures are right, it would result in a new Riksdag group of 182 seats for the right, with the left on 167 seats. In Swedish terms, with firm parliamentary group discipline, this is a strong majority that would in all likelihood last for a full four year term.
However, as ever with exit polls, there is the health warning that these are not actual results. The counting of real votes has gotten underway, with the first results coming out in around one hour. A majority of votes will have been counted by 9pm our time with all counting due before midnight.