Today’s polls

There are a few polls in today’s press, but they tend to use more newsprint than they’re really worth.

In order of uselessness, we firstly have a British Polling Index poll for the Mail on Sunday which has topline figures of Con 40% Lab 30% LD 14% – all three major parties down one point. All BPIX polls should be taken with a bucket of salt, however. Their website has been “under construction” for over a year, so they do not publish internals and they do not submit to British Polling Council guidelines.

The Scottish Mail on Sunday runs an unsourced poll on Scottish voting intentions, but a story that doesn’t even name the poll which it reports on is such bad journalism that it is best ignored.

The Observer meanwhile reports selected findings from the MORI Political Monitor, comparing various perceptions of Blair and Brown. Interviews were mainly before this week, which obviously rather reduces their relevance – a fact that the Observer neglects to flag up.

Most of the findings are fairly unsurprising – Blair wins on personality, patriotism and leadership, Brown wins on judgment. Most striking is the 51% who think Blair is out of touch with ordinary people – only 24% think this of Brown. Blair’s ratings have nose-dived over the last year, but we knew that already from countless other polls.

Finally, the Sunday Times reports on a YouGov poll in Scotland of voting intention for Holyrood. This was conducted mid-week, so it is possible that Labour support was hit by recent events. Constituency/list figures are: Lab 30/27 SNP 29/29 Con 14/14 LD 18/15. Green and SSP support were not reported, while Sheridan’s new Solidarity party was at 1/2.

The results are out of synch with the recent System 3 polls but similar to others before that. Good summary here.

2 Responses to Today’s polls

  1. Andrea says:

    Re The Times Scottish poll
    “Others” are at 10% for constituncies and 15% in the list system.

    The seats projection given is: Lab 42, SNP 38, Lib Dem, 19, Tories 17, Greens 9, Others 4

    So I suppose the Greens (probably included among “others”) are up.
    Not sure who’re the 4 “other” MSP surviving according to this poll. I suppose Canevan is one of them, then maybe Margo McDonald in Lothians…not sure the other 2: Sheridan? Another SSP? Jean Turner? The Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party MSP?

  2. Well, the YouGov poll had Solidarity at 2% in the regional list and the SSP might get the same, which might net them a seat each, but it’s very tricky to say with the independents because polls can’t really measure the very small number of votes that will decide whether they are elected or not.

    Current party strengths: Lab 50 SNP 27 Con 19 LD 17 Grn 7 SSP 6 Oth 4

    (The 4 “others” are SSCUP, Canavan, Turner and McDonald, obviously.)

    BTW, I’ve now answered (I hope!) your previous question about YouGov polls and TV regions in the comments under our last post on polls.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: