New Scottish poll

Today’s Scotsman and Herald cover a new poll from TNS System Three, who return to the polling fray after a long absence.

The London-based media seem to have given up reporting on Scottish politics since devolution, but given the importance of Scotland to Labour, next year’s elections to Holyrood are of no small significance.

The internals are unavailable, but the top line is better than other recent polls – on the constituency vote: Lab 36 SNP 28 Lib 17 Con 12; and on the list vote: Lab 28 SNP 27 Lib 19 Con 12 Green 8.

This should, however, be contrasted with less optimistic Ipsos-MORI quarterly findings. And MORI was generous to Labour in 2003.

Overall, this race has an unpredictable air to it, though opinion was pretty volatile last time too. The voting system also makes polls harder to read, but one thing that does seem to come out is that Labour’s constituency MSPs are a lot more popular than Labour is as a party.

The SNP are fighting back with a plan to cut taxes on business that has come under fire from the Scottish Tories for going too far.

3 Responses to New Scottish poll

  1. Al says:

    Last election System 3 was absolutely terrible. Mind you, it’s not as though MORI or “internal polls” are the height of reliablity either

    My guess here is that they’ve overestimated the Labour figure somewhat; 36% sounds about right for a Westminster figure, but too high for Holyrood. That said, the Labour figures for the other pollsters looked too low; let’s call it about 32% or so.
    Mind you, System 3 has a history of over-representing both Labour AND the Nationalists…

    Regardless, this will be a very volatile election… and as it’s hard to think of things I’d like less than the SNP actually winning an election, fingers crossed…

  2. Looks like System Three have done three polls which have now been released – June, July and August. Details of all three are here:

    http://www.alba.org.uk/polls/pollholyrood03.html

    You can compare System Three’s final tracker poll and the 2003 result here:

    http://www.alba.org.uk/polls/pollholyrood03.html

    They are certainly far from being reliable, though Ipsos-MORI over-estimated Labour support in the constituency section by nearly 8 points if IIRC.

    It’s going to be a difficult and nerve-wracking campaign I think, and given the importance of the Scottish and Welsh contingents in the PLP, these races are bound to influence thinking at Westminster.

  3. Al says:

    The consistent difference between the regional and constituency vote is very, very interesting… a sign of a sophisticated electorate I guess.

    Difficult indeed… the main cause for concern in Wales (ie; that we might be forced into another coalition) is o/c different from the cause for concern in Scotland (ie; that we might lose power to the nasty Nats) but I’d rather neither happend.
    O/c Blair going would be quite a boost for Labour everywhere… fingers crossed on *that* as well…

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