Michael Connarty MP has an idea in the House Magazine out this week. It’s a pretty tough proposal:
“Blair will have to name the day he is going and clear up the leadership transition or the unions will have to take him out - they’re the only ones with the muscle”.
The opinions expressed above do not necessarily reflect the views of The Daily’s writers. Well, not all of them anyway.
Following earlier discussions on the gap in voting intentions between male and female voters, YouGov pollster Anthony Wells has done an interesting analysis of YouGov polling data over the past couple of years, plotting the Tory lead among men and women.
It certainly seems that, at least over the last year or so, there has been a greater Tory lead among women. It should, however, be noted that the Tory lead is not the same as the Tory vote share. It may well be the case that the Tories are doing no better among women, but simply that Labour is doing worse.
That would seem to chime with this analysis done by Ipsos-MORI for the Fawcett Society. For polling geeks, it is well worth a read and confirms some of the suggestions we made earlier in the week.
There are considerable differences between sections of female opinion, particularly across different age groups. The Tories actually dipped under 20% among young women over summer but are gaining support among older women, a critical demographic as they are numerous and likely to vote.
However, contrary to the impression given by some commentary in the press, Cameron is actually less popular among women than among men - though Blair is less popular still. It seems that women have been more turned off than men by both of the main parties and their leaders since they voted in 2005.
We have looked at some of the possible reasons for that already, but it was interesting to see MORI’s analysis of political priorities by gender. The most striking difference is in the priority given to the NHS by women and combined with the fact that women have become far more dissatisfied than men with the NHS since the election, it seems that this must be a major factor in the gender gap.
Ironically, this has occurred under a female Health Secretary, but as women are far more likely (a gap of around ten points) to want her sacked than men are, it would seem that they are no more forgiving of a female minister than a male one if they don’t like the policies.
Chris Bowers looks back at the mid-terms to take stock of what the Democrats actually won now that the dust has settled.
In state legislative bodies, Democrats control 56 chambers, Republicans control 40. Two, the Montana House (previously tied) and the Pennsylvania House (previously Republican controlled) are undecided. Democrats took nine legislative chambers, and lost none. The gains came in Indiana (House), Iowa (House and Senate), Michigan (House), Minnesota (House), New Hampshire (House and Senate), Oregon (House), and Wisconsin (Senate). The Iowa Senate was previously tied, and the Oklahoma Senate, previously controlled by Democrats, is also now tied. I believe, however, that the tie in the Oklahoma Senate goes to Democrats, because we have the Governorship there.
Democrats control 3,964 state legislature seats, and Republicans control 3,307. I do not know how many are controlled by third parties, or are currently undecided. Democrats also have a non-southern majority in state legislature seats for the first time in many years.
It’s an interesting post worth reading. As he says:
We have now almost entirely restocked our bench following the 1994 elections. Our list of potential candidates for higher office at every level is now much longer than it was only six years ago. We also are in a position to favorably remake electoral maps in than we were six years ago.
Control of the Senate currently rests in a few ballot boxes in Montana and Virginia. As the UK media seem to lack any eye for detail (did anyone else see any of the appallingly bad coverage on Sky News overnight?) we thought we’d bring you a bit of proper analysis.
In Montana, we are waiting on the results from Meagher County. As it stands, Democratic challenger Jon Tester is just over 1700 votes ahead. Meagher is a traditional rural Republican county which went 72% for Bush in ‘04. However, it is sparsely populated and normally only around a thousand of its residents turn out to vote. In theory, scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Conrad Burns could still turn it round, but in practice there just won’t be enough votes there unless something very suspicious happens.
More critical will be the rules about a recount - if the result is within a quarter of a percent then under Montana law the loser can request a recount and the State picks up the tab. A quarter of a percent would be about a thousand votes - so a good turnout from Meagher County would mean Burns gets a recount on the taxpayer, which he would probably take. If he is up to half a percent off, then he has to pick up the tab himself.
So, touching every available wood surface in The Daily’s newsroom, we reckon it’s a Tester victory in this count, but with a strong chance that there will be a recount and no final result for days.
The situation is similar in Virginia. Democratic challenger Jim Webb has a lead of just under 8000 over gaffe-prone GOP incumbent George Allen. There are precincts still to report in Loudoun County, Fairfax City and the Isle of Wight (no, really). Loudoun breaks pretty evenly, Fairfax leans Democratic and Isle of Wight leans Republican. The latter is more populous than Fairfax but there are more precincts still to go there. Though it may be Republican areas still to report, it’s extremely hard - again, touching wood - to see how Allen can find the numbers of votes to make a shock comeback.
But again, under Virginia state law, he can ask for a recount if the result is under 1% which seems certain. So, both states may well end up recounting votes over the days ahead, with the US Senate majority depending how the hanging chads land.
18.20 update****
AP are now reporting that Tester has claimed victory in Montana. No info yet on whether there will be a recount, but at the very least, it would appear that the Republicans have lost their majority in the Senate. It now only remains to be seen if there will be a dead heat of 50/50 with Dick Cheney breaking the deadlock with the speaker’s casting vote, or whether the Democratic Party can get a majority of one senator.
In other news, Don Rumsfeld has resigned and will be replaced by former CIA head Robert Gates.
It’s been an exciting night for progressives with an eye on the US mid-term elections. When the final Daily chimp blew out the candle on his desk and hit the hay, it was all in the balance in Virginia and Montana, and the Republicans still leading in Montana. The latest figures are showing Democrat Jon Tester with his nose ahead of incumbent Conrad Burns by a mere 5,000-odd votes. Webb is also still just ahead of Allen in Virginia.
A big part of Rove’s strategy in previous elections has been the use of initiative votes to galvanise and mobilise the Republican base on issues such as gay marriage and abortion. This year, it seems that one of the decisive factors in this year’s races may have been ballot initiatives on the minimum wage. The Democrats have made the raising of the federal minimum wage one of their big campaigning issues.
Daily Kos have figures for some of the ballot initiatives. Although they’ve headlined on South Dakota’s rejection of new anti-abortion laws, the minimum wage initiatives in three states may be more interesting for the overall results of the election.
Missouri voted 75% Yes; 25% No to raise the minimum wage.
Montana voted 74% Yes; 26% No
Ohio 56% Yes; 44% No
Montana seems to have been the closest race in the Senate for the Democrats. If Tester does sneak it, then surely having this issue mobilising his voters must have been a big factor.
The Daily’s team is about to go to sleep, but in the unlikely event that you we are your first port of call for breaking US election news, it now seems certain that the Democrats are set to take the House by a comfortable, if not crushing, margin. Though there are still a couple of Democratic House seats under threat in Georgia, they should hang on and seem set for further gains.
There are a number of extremely tight results, not least the loss of disgraced internet predator Mark Foley’s previously rock solid Republican district in Florida by less than one percent, but we were pleased to see Curt Weldoncrushingly defeated in his also previously safe Pennsylvanian seat.
Things are harder to judge in the Senate. Racist scandal plagued Virginia Senator George Allen looked set to hang on by the slimmest of margins all night, until the last ballot boxes came in from solid Democratic areas and tipped the balance. 99% of votes have been counted and the Dems have a lead of a few thousand with the last districts still to report in heavily blue counties. Either way, the loser has a right to a recount when the majority is under 1% so it might not be the end of the story. Updates here.
To take the Senate, the Dems would also need to finish off Conrad Burns in Montana and take Missouri. The Republican incumbent is currently 3% ahead in the latter race with nearly 70% of votes tallied, so it will be tough.
For any insomniac political junkies are out there, the best news website for incoming results is CNN. Fingers crossed for the Dems, and we’ll be back in the morning afternoon.
At some point tonight, Vermont’s sitting Congressman Bernie Sanders will be elected America’s only Independent Socialist Senator. We hope that this is part of a wave that sweeps away Republican control, but it looks too close to call at the moment, so we are preparing to celebrate whatever victory we can.
However, for those who may be bored in the meantime, we have discovered the Bernie Arcade game. How many other politicians could get away with this?
With less than a week to go until the mid-term elections in the States, we thought we’d cast a quick eye over the Senatorial races.
Kos published the latest polling on some of the key Senatorial races earlier today. They seem to confirm that, although the House seems in their grasp (barring John Kerry saying anything else between now and polling day), the Senate is still a tough prospect.
The magic number is six net gains for the Democrats to take back the Senate. Polls show the Dems still leading in three of the four Republican seats where they’ve been best placed, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island. The Montana lead has dwindled to a statistical tie.
Pennsylvania (R*) Zogby for Reuters. Santorum (R) 40 (36) Casey (D) 48 (4 - some bounce back for the GOP, but they’re surely too far back on this one. Ohio (R) Zogby for Reuters. DeWine (R) 42 (41) Brown (D) 49 (41) Rhode Island (R) Zogby for Reuters. Chafee (R) 39 (41) Whitehouse (D) 53 (45) Montana (R) Zogby for Reuters. Burns (R) 46 (42) Tester (D) 47 (46)
In the two races where Democratic Senate seats have been at risk, the danger seems to have abated.
New Jersey (D) Zogby for Reuters. Menendez (D) 49 (46) Kean (R) 37 (35). Maryland (D) Zogby for Reuters. Cardin (D) 49 (45) Steele (R) 44 (37). This is an open seat and the Republicans are reportly pouring money in. They’ve brought it back, but surely too late.
This leaves three states, Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, likely to decide the control of the US Senate. If the Democrats can hold Maryland and New Jersey and take the four key states, then they will have to take two of these states.
Missouri (R) Rasmussen. Talent (R) 47 (4 McCaskill (D) 48 (46). Zogby for Reuters. Talent (R) 43 (43) McCaskill (D) 46 (48). A statistical tie, but both show the Democrat in the lead. Tennessee (R) Rasmussen. Corker (R) 49 (47) Ford (D) 47 (46) Zogby for Reuters. Corker (R) 53 (40) Ford (D) 43 (40). Virginia (R) Zogby for Reuters. Allen (R) 44 (4 Webb (D) 45 (37). Another statistical tie.
Arizona could also be interesting as, although the GOP candidate Jon Kyl has a 6 point lead, the Dems are pumping in money and sending top personnel as early voting patterns show Pederson, the Democrat, leads in absentee ballots cast.
It’s tantalising as, if the poll results were replicated exactly in the election, the Democrats would win. With several of these races too close to call, we’ll just have to wait for the fat lady to sing.
In other election news, Lieberman is still leading as an independent in Connecticut. Zogby for Reuters. Lieberman (CfL) 49 (53) Lamont (D) 37 (33) Schlesinger (R) 8 (4) . It’s pretty unlikely that Lamont can claw it back at this stage as Lieberman seems to have a loyal rump of supporters, together with a big chunk of the Republican vote, to give him a majority.
Lamont’s last faint hope is probably in the scandal that’s brewing over huge spending irregularities in Lieberman’s Democratic primary campaign. It seems that the $387,000 in petty cash payments that Lieberman made in the dying days of his failed re-nomination attempts may have been illegal.
Lieberman’s probable re-election, however, will be interesting as his vote could end up deciding who controls the Senate.
In the meantime, for old time’s sake, we thought we’d leave you with Lamont’s latest campaign video.
After Mr Smith Goes to Washington:
*Some of these races are open as the incumbent has stood down. I’m still marking them with the party of the incumbent.
With the US elections coming up, and the Bush regime teetering on the edge of the worst mid-term defeat since the 1960s, George W’s spin doctors have realised that they need to stop digging in the hole marked “Iraq”. The war is costing Republicans votes hand over fist across America. The tactic of labelling anyone refusing to “stay the course” as a friend to terrorists and sectarian killers hasn’t worked.
You can say what you like about right-wingers, but they certainly know how to spin their way out of trouble. Got an unpopular line? Change it! So yesterday, the Republican rolled out their new, voter friendly message: “adapt and change to win”. No more insisting that the US will “stay the course”, no more insisting that opponents of the war want to “cut and run”. So brazen is the about-turn that Bush even told one interviewer: “We’ve never been ’stay the course…’”.
Which brings us to Hilary Benn, put up to defend the government’s Iraq policy on this morning’s Today programme. Benn, who clearly hadn’t read the morning memo from the RNC, told John Humphrys that the Brits “would stay the course” until “the job is done”. Hopefully not on our own!
However, despite his hard-line language, he conceded that security situation on the ground is dreadful: “It’s grim, and there’s no point pretending otherwise, particularly in those parts of the country where a lot of violence is taking place - although it does tend to be concentrated in certain parts of Iraq,” he said.
He also rebuked opponents of war for their failure to criticise the insurgency and warned them that “there is no alternative” to the government’s policy. Could make for an interesting conversation next time his father drops round for tea, though at least he didn’t go as far as Adam Ingram and call them “the pro-dictator coalition”.
Hilary Benn’s apparent decision to stand in either (or both) the leader or deputy elections means people will start paying more attention to what he says and does. This could give him problems if his superiors decide that he is the best way to sell their worst mistakes.
Update:
The Democrats have launched a new ad criticising “stay the course”. They’re arguing for “a change in policy” not a “change in rhetoric”.
The Washington Post carries the news that independent voters are now favouring the Democratic Party by a margin of two to one.
59 percent of independents said that they planned to vote for Democrats, versus 31 percent for the GOP. It also found that 95 percent of Democratic supporters plan to vote for their party versus 88 percent for the Republicans.
Iraq is the most cited issue that voters cite when making up their mind, with 76 percent of those who mention the issue of Iraq siding with the Democrats.
Enthusiasm for the parties among their voters seems pretty even with 38 percent of Dems very and 40 fairly enthusiastic about their party compared to 39 and 41 percent among Republicans.
A far higher proportion of Democratic voters say they are voting against the Republican candidate (43 percent), than Republicans who are voting against the Democrat (25 percent).
The issues ranked by importance by registered voters were: Iraq (27%), Economy (19%), terrorism (14%), healthcare (13%), immigration (10%) and ethics in government (8%).
65 percent disapprove of the way that the House is doing its job, with 31 percent approving - only 5 percent strongly (compared to only 43% disapproving and 51% approving in the run-up to the ‘02 mid-terms). However, caution is important on this stat as only 32 percent disapprove of the job their Representative is doing, although 48 percent of voters say that their vote will be to express either support (17%) or opposition (31%) to Bush. Clinton was never such a factor during his eight years as president.
Lastly (although there is more good stuff in the poll) the Democrats now lead the Republicans on public perception of their ability to handle: The situation in Iraq (48%/40%); The economy (50%/41%); Ethics in government (48%/35 %), and; The situation with North Korea (47%/40%). They are pretty much tied with the GOP on “The U.S. campaign against terrorism” (44%/43%).
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Elections, Found on a Westminster Photocopier, Politics | 
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Posted by politicalcorrespondent
- some bounce back for the GOP, but they’re surely too far back on this one.
